XMRVM / RESEARCH
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO / NOT A PRICE FORECAST
The launchpad's economic flywheel

More activity.
More fuel for the burn.

Every successful launch can become a source of recurring buyback funding. Explore how that funding compares with XMRVM's size, how execution limits slow it down, and why the same burn can lead to very different market-cap outcomes.

This is a transparent simulator, not a prediction. Launch count alone cannot predict burn or price. All outputs below depend on the selected graduation, trading, execution and market assumptions. No displayed result is an actual on-chain burn.

XMRVM: DexScreener / XMR & SOL: CoinGecko / supply: finalized Solana mint. Provider data may be cached; this is polling, not a streaming trade feed. Editing market inputs pauses auto-refresh.
01 / CREATELaunchesOnly a selected fraction graduates.
02 / TRADETrading volume0.475% curve share; 0.9025% Raydium share.
03 / EXECUTEBuyback fundingBudget waits until eligible lots execute.
04 / RETIREReduced supplyOnly confirmed burns retire real tokens.
Animation traces launch count, not historical time.
Eligible buyback funding
Modeled spending in horizon
Ideal AMM burn / conditional
Passive holder's supply share
Relative increase in ownership share under the AMM illustration. Not a financial return.
Activity versus the size of XMRVM

A budget has weight. Not a promised return.

Ideal fixed AMM, no sellersUnchanged execution and final price

X axis: launched tokens. Y axis: modeled market cap / starting market cap. Both curves use the same available spending. Neither is a lower or upper bound for the real market.

Counterfactual A / fixed price

Burn without price appreciation

Assumes sufficient sellers at a fixed price. This is a conversion benchmark, not a market forecast.

Counterfactual B / fixed pool

Price revaluation in an ideal AMM

Synthetic constant-product pool normalized to the chosen price. No sales, liquidity changes or fees retained in reserves. Not a PumpSwap/Jupiter replay.

What about a falling market?

Even after a burn, a lower final price can outweigh the supply reduction. Holding the fixed-price benchmark's burn constant:

A sensitivity calculation, not a simulated trading path: final cap = remaining supply from A x selected final price. The buy execution price in A stays fixed.

The takeaway

The compelling number is funding relative to size.

Market cap is a last-price valuation, not money sitting in a pool. A large theoretical repricing does not mean the same dollars can be withdrawn. More burn increases an unchanged holding's share of supply, but it does not guarantee gains.

Market cap = price x remaining supply

At an unchanged price, burning tokens reduces market cap. For market cap to rise after burning fraction b of supply, price must increase by more than 1 / (1 - b). Sellers, liquidity changes and wider market demand determine whether that happens.

How to read the execution limit

The checked production configuration uses 0.05-0.25 SOL lots. The code randomly selects the lot and schedules the next attempt roughly 0.5-1.5 hours later. Only one run is advanced at a time. Fees, balance reserves, processing time and failures can slow execution.

3.6 SOL/day is a nominal long-run reference when fully funded and uninterrupted. The earlier “6 SOL/day cap” description was incorrect: 6 assumes maximum lots and mean spacing, not an enforced daily ceiling. The configuration can differ from the live deployment.

This dashboard caps modeled spending at days x selected daily SOL x SOL price. It optimistically treats eligible funding as available at the start of the horizon. Real funding arrives over time, so actual burns can be lower or later.

Transparent mathematics

G = launches x graduation share
Curve funding = G x fee-base curve volume XMR x 0.00475 x XMRUSD x 0.988
Raydium funding = G x eligible volume USD x 0.009025
Executed budget = min(total funding, days x nominal SOL/day x SOLUSD)
Effective spend B = executed budget x (1 - assumed execution haircut)
A: burned = B / P; cap = P x (S - burned)
B: initial token reserve Y = Q / P; burned = Y x B / (Q + B)
B: final price = P x (1 + B/Q)^2; cap = final price x (S - burned)
Unchanged holder's share gain = S / (S - burned) - 1

S = total on-chain supply; P = starting price; Q = quote reserve in USD. Curve conversion assumes a 1.2% haircut from an earlier test, not a provider guarantee, and excludes Monero network costs. Integer rounding is ignored. Funding from unfinished curves is excluded; this is not full treasury accounting.

Data & assumptions

Fee and execution assumptions follow the locally checked launchpad program, bridge and Mainnet configuration; live deployment equivalence is not verified. Reset restores scenario defaults using the last successfully fetched market data, or the embedded snapshot if no refresh succeeded. Feed failures retain previous values with an explicit warning. Hidden tabs pause polling. Requests go directly to the named public providers, which see your IP; no wallet data or API secrets are sent. Public APIs may impose rate limits or change browser access. Download JSON for scenario inputs and results.